As I sit here typing this recap of the 2023 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn park, all I can do is simply laugh. On last week’s episode of Decadent & Depraved, I simply told the boys that I had no analysis to offer on the 15/1 long-shot Confidence Game. One of those horses that you see at 15/1 on the form that had decent speed figures & pretty good connections, but one you consider only underneath on your exotics. In the least shocking news of 2023, the one horse I chose to offer zero analysis on decided to run the best race of his career and win the Rebel Stakes at 17/1. It’s a tale as old as time, and if you’re an avid fan of thoroughbred wagering, you know exactly the feeling I’m talking about. Here are some of my thoughts after Saturdays Race:
Confidence Game Earns 50 points toward KY Derby 149
Standing in first place on the leaderboard for the 2023 Kentucky Derby as of February 27….. You guessed it: Confidence Game. I can say with the utmost confidence that I didn’t expect to be typing those words but here we are. Confidence Game came through with a gutty performance in the slop at Oaklawn Saturday to record a triumphant victory and score 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Coming off a distant 3 rd in the Lecomte @ Fairgrounds, Confidence Game put forth the best effort of his career with jockey James Graham aboard. Graham deserves a boat load of credit, as he was able to keep Confidence Game stalking in a great position with a nice middle of the pack trip. Keeping the horse outside, clear of traffic and mud he was able to get the best out of him and hold off a red-hot Red Route One closing late.
Red Route One Finds His Way in the Money Again!
I don’t know what else to say at this point, but for the second race in a row this horse finds a way to finish second when I didn’t think he had a chance. Red Route One came FLYING down the center of the track late in this one, but it was just too little too late. In the opening half mile of the race, Red Route One was a distant last place and even disappeared off the screen for quite a bit of time. Credit to Jockey Christian Torres for keeping the colt engaged and having him come firing with his best stuff late. It’ll be interesting to see if this horse runs in the upcoming Arkansas Derby and if he does, can he finally breakthrough and get a win on the road to the KY Derby? Knowing my current gambling luck, I’ll call him a fraud on the next Podcast and he’ll win at 30/1 right in my face!
Brad Cox Duo Disappoints
The sloppy conditions did not bode well for the two post time favorites. Verifying & Giant Mischief sat 3rd & 4th making the final turn into the home stretch both looking full of run and in a great position. Ultimately the distance and the sloppy racetrack proved to be too much for them to overcome as they finished 4th (Verifying) & 6th (Giant Mischief). I’m not willing to throw these two out of the mix just yet, but I think it’s safe to say that Brad Cox might want to turn the majority of his attention to his leading contenders.
We’ve got a lot more exciting racing coming up this weekend on Saturday March 4th . *Lebron James voice* We’ve got not one…. not two….. not three but FOUR, yes four Kentucky Derby Prep races across the country. We’ve got the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream, the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita & last but not least the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park. Let’s hope for a profitable weekend of betting ponies! Cheers!
Want to hear more about the 2023 KY Derby Trail? You can find the Decadent & Depraved Podcast on Apple Music & Spotify. Alex, Duncan, Jacob & John Mark provide a preview of every KY Derby prep race leading up to the first Saturday in May. The boys provide a great mix of knowledge & non-sense (mostly non-sense). Like & Subscribe to hear every episode.
