The time is finally here, G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Forte makes his return after an extensive layoff. The infamous Fountain of Youthat Gulfstream Park attracts a field of 10 horses this year, and it’ll be extremely interesting to see if Forte can outclass his opponents in the last prep race for the 2023 Florida Derby. Below are my thoughts of the 2023 rendition of the FOY:
Does Forte bring his “A” performance off a 4-month Layoff?
4 Months is a long time for a layoff, even for a proven Grade One winner like Forte. Todd Pletcher seems very confident about Forte’s chances heading into the race. My one concern about this colt in the race: does he need to get one race under his belt prior to the Florida Derby on April 1? My gut tells me that the colt needs to get that race under the belt to shake the rust off, but ultimately, he outclasses this field to come away with the victory.
Red Route One Finds His Way in the Money Again!
I don’t know what else to say at this point, but for the second race in a row this horse finds a way to finish second when I didn’t think he had a chance. Red Route One came FLYING down the center of the track late in this one, but it was just too little too late. In the opening half mile of the race, Red Route One was a distant last place and even disappeared off the screen for quite a bit of time. Credit to Jockey Christian Torres for keeping the colt engaged and having him come firing with his best stuff late. It’ll be interesting to see if this horse runs in the upcoming Arkansas Derby and if he does, can he finally breakthrough and get a win on the road to the KY Derby? Knowing my current gambling luck, I’ll call him a fraud on the next Podcast and he’ll win at 30/1 right in my face!
Can Either Bill Mott Contender give Forte a Run for His Money?
Bill Mott brings in two extremely intriguing contenders into this race with the #3 Shadow Dragon and the #8 Rocket Can. Rocket Can comes off an impressive win in the G3 Holy Bull back in January. Junior Alvarado hops back aboard here looking to pull off the second upset in a row at 8/1 ML. Despite the win in the Holy Bull, I think that #8 Rocket Can will have to run back to back races of a lifetime to pull off the upset. The #3 Shadow Dragon has the infamous Jose Ortiz aboard, looking to build off the momentum he gained from the second-place finish in the G3 Holy Bull. Watch out for the #3 here as a long-shot play if he can build off that last performance closing late.
Chad Brown Ships in #6 Blazing Sevens
Really interesting entrant from Chad Brown shipping down south here. After winning the G1 Champagne Stakes in September, he followed that performance with a 4th place finish in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Despite a 4th place effort, it’s of note that he finished behind Forte, Cave Rock & National Treasure who all had extremely impressive 2-year old campaigns. Be on the lookout for this horse to take a big step forward off a long layoff and be firing late.
My Pick: #4 Forte
This pick is so chalky, it almost hurts. I am a little weary of this horse having a 4-month layoff, but I ultimately think that this horse is just leaps & bounds above the majority of others in this race. Even if Forte doesn’t come with his “A” game, I still think he is talented enough to beat this field and continue on to the Florida Derby as the heavy favorite. If you’re interested in playing the exotics, I like a $5 Exacta 4/3,6,8 which will cost you $15. I ultimately think Forte will go off at 4/5 or 1/1 but hopefully the odds on one of those underplay exotics will creep high enough to see a decent ROI.
D&D Picks:
Want to hear more about the 2023 KY Derby Trail? You can find the Decadent & Depraved Podcast on Apple Music & Spotify. Alex, Duncan, Jacob & John Mark provide a preview of every KY Derby prep race leading up to the first Saturday in May. The boys provide a great mix of knowledge & non-sense (mostly non-sense). Like & Subscribe to hear every episode.
