Florida Derby : 100-40-30-20-10

2023 Florida Derby- “He’s baaaacccckkkkk”

If you’ve been paying any attention to this years Kentucky Derby Trail, you know exactly who I’m talking about. Forte. He makes his much-anticipated return for trainer Todd Pletcher coming off an extremely impressive victory in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Forte is far and away the favorite in this spot at 4/5 Morning Line odds. The only cause for concern in this spot is the post draw, where Forte was drawn to the outside in the 11 post. This will be a true test of this horse’s ability as he will have to navigate a lot of traffic to get in position to win this race. So far in his career, he’s given no reason to doubt his ability to get it done regardless of the circumstances.

Other contenders in this spot are #10 Fort Bragg (5/1 Morning Line) for trainer Tim Yakteen, #9 Cyclone Mischief (8/1 Morning Line) for trainer Dale Romans and #12 Dubyuhnell (6/1 Morning Line) for trainer Danny Gargan. All of these horses have participated on the Derby Trail and have shown promise at various points in their young careers. Cyclone Mischief finished a distant third in the Fountain of Youth and absent of a complete meltdown by Forte, will have to run at a level we haven’t seen yet in order to compete. Fort Bragg is intriguing out of the Yakteen Barn, as he finished 5 th last time out in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. In an interesting move, Yakteen decides to ship Fort Bragg all the way across the country from California to run in South Florida. You’ve got to think with the last-minute nature of this decision, the connections have to be shipping for a reason and must think that Fort Bragg can really compete here.

My Pick: #11 Forte- It is so chalky to pick Forte here but ultimately, I think this colt is just entirely too talented not to win this race. Even with the unfortunate post draw, I;m of the belief that Forte continues his hot streak and enters the Derby as the odds-on favorite.

Decadent & Depraved Picks

Back to Turfway Park we go, as 12 runners look to score 100 points toward the Derby on the all-weather track. While I don’t think we will see this years Derby winner in this race, I do think there is a good betting opportunity in this race. Heavy morning line favorite in this spot at 2-1 is Major Dude out of the Todd Pletcher Barn. One of the more surprising things about this race is the fact that Irad Otrtiz Jr.makes the trip to Turfway to ride, which is something I never thought that I would say. Major Dude comes in off a win in the G III Kittens Joy at Gulfstream and looks to gain 100 points toward the KY Derby. This horse should be the favorite based on class alone here, but there are some other intriguing runners in this spot.

This rendition of the Arkansas Derby has an extremely talented field, with 4 horses at 9/2 or better on the morning line. #8 Reincarnate is the slight morning line favorite at 5/2 for trainer Tim Yakteen, who looks to get 100 points and send this colt to the Kentucky Derby. The other three contenders are #10 Red Route One (3/1 Morning Line) for Steve Asmussen, #7 Rocket Can (4/1 Morning Line) for trainer Bill Mott and #6 Angel of Empire (9/2 Morning Line) for Brad Cox. Angel of Empire comes off a dominant win in the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds back in February. I look for Brad to have this horse firing on all cylinders with hopes to get this horse in the money to gain some points and secure a spot in the Derby.

Despite those 4 horses being the Morning Line favorites, there are some interesting longshot contenders in this race. #3 Harlocap for trainer Steve Asmussen is really intriguing in this spot and was once a promising star in the Bob Baffert Barn. This will be the second race under the care of Asmussen and I think this horse will improve vastly in this spot with Ricardo Santana riding. Another interesting long shot here is the #1 Bourbon Bash for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. I really like the post draw on the inside here, as long as the horse gets a good break from the gate I expect jockey Reylu Gutierrez to be aggressive and keep this horse in the mix early. I think this is a GREAT race for bettors and there’s a potential for some pretty large payouts.

My Pick: #6 Angel of Empire- This is a really tough race to handicap, but I ultimately landed on this Brad Cox trainee. I truly believe this horse continues to build on his impressive performance in the Risen Star and will cement himself as Brad Cox’s best shot at winning his first Derby. If I was to make a wager, I would play a $5 Exacta with the 6/1,3,5,7,8,10. This bet will cost you a decent amount of $ but if Angel of Empire stays at the 3/1 or 4/1 range at post time, there is a potential for a big payout in the exacta pool.

Decadent & Depraved Picks

Check out the Decadent & Depraved Podcast to hear all of our picks, insight and analysis of the races ahead this weekend. Check back to KyDerbyTrail.com for our picks before race time Saturday. Best of luck to everyone betting this weekend. Lets cash some tickets!!!!