*Cue Michael Buffer Voice* “LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLEEEEEEEEEEEE” Ladies and Gentlemen, the time has finally arrived and it is time for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Being around the city of Louisville around Derby time is a feeling unlike any other. It’s the only place in the world where they have a month-long celebration, where they shut down the city for a week, all simply for a 2-minute horse race at Churchill Downs that doesn’t take place until Saturday evening.
If you haven’t been to a Kentucky Derby, it truly is a spectacle to behold. Thousands and thousands of people from all over the world descend upon Churchill Downs to watch some of the most talented race horses in the world try to etch their names in the record books as a Kentucky Derby Champion. Whether you’re an avid thoroughbred racing fan or not, the Derby is the most unique event in sports and one that I would say should be on everyone’s bucket list.
This year’s road to the Kentucky Derby was full of all sorts of exciting headlines and intriguing stories. On the Dedcadent & Depraved Podcast we followed every single domestic Kentucky Derby Prep race beginning with the Iroquois Stakes in September and finishing up with the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland just two weeks ago. In that 8-month period, it’s simply hard for my little brain to fathom how much has happened with this year’s group of 3-year-old contenders. Remember when I thought Instant Coffee was a top contender? Or when I thought Hoosier Philly could run with the boys in this years Derby? Looking back on it, it’s almost impressive to see the amount of takes that we’ve had along this journey. Whether our hot takes were right or wrong, we’ve stuck by our guns and I trust that our Decadent & Depraved group of degenerates has followed this group of colts almost as well as anybody.
With that being said, I’ll take you into our 5 main story lines as we sit 10 days from Derby 149. Be on the lookout for our upcoming podcasts where we will breakdown each runner individually and provide you with our final thoughts, analysis and picks for the big day! You can find us on Apple Music, Spotify or YouTube.
Forte Will Rightfully be the Morning Line Favorite
Now that Prep Race season is over, we can finally look at the field much more clearly. Despite some extremely impressive performances over the last month or so, Florida Derby winning Forte will rightfully enter the first Saturday in May as the favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher. Forte has done nothing but win, doing so in multiple different fashions and proving why he is deserving of favoritism.
In an interesting turn of events, you won’t hear a lot of experts listing Forte as their top pick this year despite being the ML favorite. A lot of experts seem concerned with the layoff and the fact that he is going to want to close in a field devoid of a lot of early speed. Despite that being the case, I really do think that Forte is the most talented horse in the field and in a perfect world he wins this race fairly easily. With that being said, it is the Kentucky Derby where anything and everything can happen. It’ll be interesting to see what post position Forte draws and whether or not bettors will be drawn away from him.
This Field Lacks Early Speed
When handicapping this year’s field, you will notice there aren’t a whole lot of true pace setters out there. Last year’s derby was the exact opposite where you saw multiple horse’s gun to the front of the field and simply try to wire the field. This year should be a much different story, as there aren’t a whole lot of horses with true sprinter speed in this year’s field. This could spell bad news for some of the major contenders as the majority of favorites are closers who love to come flying late after a stalking trip. If we see some slow fractions up front, we could be in for an exhilarating finish closing down the stretch.
Can the Japanese Horses Get the Job Done?
Derma Sotogake
After a disappointing showing in the 2022 Derby, can the Japanese contingent find a way to win this year’s race? The Japanese come to the table with two very intriguing runners with Derma Sotogake and Continuar. Derma Sotogake comes off an impressive win in the UAE Derby, where his counterpart Continuar finished a very respectable 3 rd . I’m usually one to fade the foreign horses in the KY Derby, as they have to make the long journey from overseas and adapt quickly to the environment at Churchill Downs. However, the more I read about both of these horses, the more I’m convinced that this year might be a different story. Both of these horses are extremely fast and come in running against extremely competitive groups overseas. Look for Derma Sotogake to get a lot of attention at the window due to his speed figures and impressive win in the UAE Derby. Watch out for Continuar, though…. I think this horse could sneak in a big performance at a MASSIVE price. The connections seem extremely confident this horse is on the cusp of a big performance.
Brad Cox Currently with 4 Contenders:
Angel of Empire - Hit show - Jace's road - Verifying
With Chad Brown opting not to run Blazing Sevens next week, that allowed for Jace’s Road to draw into the field giving Brad Cox FOUR entrants into this year’s Derby. Brad Cox has had one heck of a year and has a really impressive group of three-year old’s this go around. Angel of Empire and Hit Show should be extremely popular on the tote board come Derby Day and have an extremely solid chance. I know Brad technically has a Derby Winner on his resume (via disqualification in 2020) but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him in the winner’s circle on Saturday. As a Louisvillian, I’ll be rooting hard for him.
Will this Year Provide Another Massive Upset?
Outside of about 4 horses, just about every other horse in the field will be double digit odds or better come post time. There are a lot of intriguing story lines and talented horses in the field but will we see a massive upset like we did with Rich Strike last year? I don’t think we will quite see another 80-1 show winning the derby but it would not shock me at all to see a horse at 20-1 or worse win this race. Outside of the top 3 or 4 horses the field is extremely wide open this year. A couple bad post draws or a little traffic trouble for the favorites could leave the door wide open for a longshot to win yet again and provide a big pay day for some bettors. I quite literally can’t contain my excitement, and I’ll drop a little teaser here: there may or may not be a horse at huge odds that I LOVE in this race. Be on the lookout for more content in the coming weeks where we will discuss in-depth.
Decadent & Depraved Picks
Check out the Decadent & Depraved Podcast to hear all of our picks, insight and analysis of the races ahead this weekend. Check back to KyDerbyTrail.com for our picks before race time Saturday. Best of luck to everyone betting this weekend. Lets cash some tickets!!!!